French Presidential Election First Round Winner Odds
Polymarket traders give Marine Le Pen a 85% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 85% | -545 | — |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 5% | +1752 | ▲ 2 |
| Christine Lagarde | 3% | +3126 | — |
| David Lisnard | 3% | +3471 | — |
| Édouard Philippe | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 2% | +4067 | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | <1% | +33233 | — |
| François Hollande | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Gabriel Attal | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Sarah Knafo | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | <1% | +199900 | — |
| François Ruffin | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Marine Tondelier | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in French Presidential Election First Round Winner?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Marine Le Pen at 85%, about -545 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 18, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on French Presidential Election First Round Winner?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.