French Presidential Election First Round: Mélenchon Vote Share Odds
Polymarket traders give 21-24% a 30% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21-24% | 30% | +239 | ▲ 2 |
| 24%+ | 28% | +257 | ▼ 6 |
| 18-21% | 21% | +376 | ▲ 4 |
| 15-18% | 17% | +506 | ▼ 5 |
| 12-15% | 8% | +1150 | — |
| <12% | 6% | +1567 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in French Presidential Election First Round: Mélenchon Vote Share?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 21-24% at 30%, about +239 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 18, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on French Presidential Election First Round: Mélenchon Vote Share?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.