El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place Odds
Polymarket traders give Vamos a 38% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vamos | 38% | +167 | ▼ 0 |
| PCN | 34% | +199 | ▲ 2 |
| ARENA | 13% | +669 | ▼ 1 |
| PAIS | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Salvadoran Democracy (DS) | 3% | +3179 | — |
| Nuevas Ideas (NI) | 2% | +6352 | — |
| FMLN | <1% | +18082 | — |
| PDC | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Solidary Force (FS) | <1% | +22122 | — |
| GANA | <1% | +66567 | — |
| FPS | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. Notwithstanding the above, if candidates from two or more parties run on the same list, each seat won by that list will be counted toward the party to which the elected candidate belongs. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Vamos at 38%, about +167 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.