Dems' best tossup Senate race Odds
Polymarket traders give Texas a 89% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 89% | -801 | ▼ 10 |
| Michigan | 1% | +7307 | ▲ 1 |
| Maine | <1% | +12400 | ▲ 1 |
| Alaska | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Ohio | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Iowa | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Dems' best tossup Senate race?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Texas at 89%, about -801 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 3, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Dems' best tossup Senate race?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.