Closest Senate Race Odds
Polymarket traders give Mississippi a 94% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 94% | -1500 | ▲ 1 |
| Alaska | 6% | +1539 | ▼ 1 |
| Michigan | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Maine | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Kansas | <1% | +24900 | — |
| South Carolina | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Texas | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Nebraska | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Ohio (Special) | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Tennessee | <1% | +28471 | — |
| Montana | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Minnesota | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Florida (Special) | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Louisiana | <1% | +39900 | — |
| South Dakota | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Iowa | <1% | +49900 | — |
| Kentucky | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Arkansas | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Colorado | <1% | +199900 | — |
| New Mexico | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Georgia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Virginia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| North Carolina | <1% | +199900 | — |
| New Hampshire | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Alabama | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Delaware | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Idaho | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Illinois | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Massachusetts | <1% | +199900 | — |
| New Jersey | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Oklahoma | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Oregon | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Rhode Island | <1% | +199900 | — |
| West Virginia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Wyoming | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Closest Senate Race?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Mississippi at 94%, about -1500 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Closest Senate Race?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.