Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round) Odds
Polymarket traders give 290K-305K a 45% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 290K-305K | 45% | +122 | ▲ 2 |
| 320K+ | 41% | +147 | ▼ 5 |
| 260K-275K | 39% | +155 | ▼ 4 |
| 275K-290K | 39% | +160 | ▼ 0 |
| 305K-320K | 14% | +641 | ▼ 1 |
| 245K-260K | 3% | +3674 | — |
| <230K | 1% | +7307 | — |
| 230K-245K | <1% | +49900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 290K-305K at 45%, about +122 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.