2026 Midterms: House Turnout Odds
Polymarket traders give 120-125m a 91% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120-125m | 91% | -1070 | ▼ 3 |
| 115-120m | 7% | +1415 | ▲ 3 |
| <85m | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 85-90m | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 90-95m | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 95-100m | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 100-105m | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 105-110m | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 110-115m | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 125-130m | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 1 |
| 130m+ | <1% | +199900 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in 2026 Midterms: House Turnout?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 120-125m at 91%, about -1070 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 2026 Midterms: House Turnout?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.