120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader Odds · Before Jan 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Katherine Clark | 5% | +2122 | ▼ 1 |
| Pete Aguilar | 4% | +2757 | ▼ 3 |
| Rashida Tlaib | 8% | +1150 | ▲ 1 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 4% | +2757 | ▼ 2 |
| Joe Neguse | 4% | +2757 | ▼ 3 |
| Pramila Jayapal | 4% | +2400 | ▲ 3 |
| Ted Lieu | 8% | +1233 | ▲ 2 |
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Resolution rules
If Hakeem Jeffries has announced that they will run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on 120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.