Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 51% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | +104 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 51% | -104 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 51%, about -104 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.