Will Trump declare an election emergency Odds · Executive action timing
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 4, 2026 | 1% | +7592 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4% | +2757 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Trump declare an election emergency?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.