Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 99% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | +7043 | ▼ 3 |
| No | 99% | -7043 | ▲ 3 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 99%, about -7043 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.