Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 75% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | +300 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 75% | -300 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is officially granted asylum in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A grant of asylum by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) or an immigration judge, or a public statement by the U.S. government confirming that Flávio Bolsonaro has been granted asylum, will qualify. Credible reporting that asylum has been granted, including confirmation by Flávio Bolsonaro or his legal representatives, will also qualify. Other forms of U.S. immigration relief or status, including but not limited to refugee status, humanitarian parole, Temporary Protected Status, withholding of removal, protection under the Convention Against Torture, visas, or lawful permanent residence, will not qualify unless an asylum grant is also made. The mere filing of an asylum application, a pending application, or Flávio Bolsonaro's presence or extended residence in the United States will not qualify. The asylum must be granted within this market's timeframe, and the grant must be confirmed by credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any subsequent revocation, appeal, or termination of asylum will not affect the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 75%, about -300 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.