Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China Odds · During his term
Kalshi traders give No a 82% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | +441 | — |
| No | 82% | -441 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If a free trade agreement with China has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 82%, about -441 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 20, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.