Will the Citrini scenario happen Odds · Before July 2028
Kalshi traders give No a 80% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | +388 | ▲ 2 |
| No | 80% | -388 | ▼ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will the Citrini scenario happen"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 80%, about -388 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jul 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the Citrini scenario happen?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.