Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency Odds · During Trump's term
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 14% | +614 | ▲ 2 |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 18% | +471 | ▲ 5 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If, as part of Section IV of the 25th Amendment, the Vice President (and a majority of the Cabinet or some other body designated by Congress) transmit to Congress a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 20, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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