Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles Odds · Before 2030
Kalshi traders give “Yes” a 89% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89% | -809 | — |
| No | 11% | +809 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the Supreme Court, in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins, rules the Second and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee a right to possess AR-15-platform and similar semiautomatic rifles, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Yes at 89%, about -809 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2030 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.