Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence Odds · Bougainville independence
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 15% | +567 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 53% | -111 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.