Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +2640 | — |
| No | 96% | -2640 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 96%, about -2640 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 4, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.