Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 94% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | +1438 | — |
| No | 94% | -1438 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 94%, about -1438 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.