Will Iran become a democracy in 2026 Odds · 2026
Kalshi traders give No a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +6352 | ▼ 1 |
| No | 98% | -6352 | ▲ 1 |
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Resolution rules
If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Iran become a democracy in 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price No at 98%, about -6352 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists May 30, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.