Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | +3233 | — |
| No | 97% | -3233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces, on or before the date specified in the market title, 11:59 PM ET, that she has resigned or will resign as United States Representative for Minnesota's 5th congressional district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The deadline applies to the timing of the announcement, not the effective date of the resignation. An announcement made by the deadline that she will resign on a later date, including a date after the specified deadline, will qualify. If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", it is only necessary that Ilhan Omar announce that she has resigned or will resign. Whether she actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. An announcement that she will not seek re-election, or that she is ending her 2026 campaign, will not qualify on its own. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Ilhan Omar or the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 97%, about -3233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.