Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 8% | +1233 | ▲ 1 |
| June 30, 2027 | 12% | +770 | ▲ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jul 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.