Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +5961 | — |
| No | 98% | -5961 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 98%, about -5961 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.