Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 95% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | +1718 | — |
| No | 95% | -1718 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in France on April 18, 2027, with a second round on May 2, 2027. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French government, specifically the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel) (https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 95%, about -1718 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Apr 19, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.