Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit Odds · the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 11% | +809 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 17% | +506 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 21% | +388 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 27% | +270 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2033 | 35% | +186 | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2035 | 41% | +144 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads is confirmed after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2035 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.