Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms Odds
This market has resolved: Oil ≥ $85; D Senate. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $85; D Senate ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 26 |
| Oil < $85; R Senate | 0% | — | — |
| Oil < $85; D Senate | 0% | — | — |
| Oil ≥ $85; R Senate | 0% | — | ▼ 23 |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the most recent prior trading day. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See: https://www.ice.com/holiday-hours). The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions. At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day). The last trading day for each contract is posted at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures/expiry. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption, the official close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe will be used to determine the closing price for that day (See: https://www.ice.com/report/10 with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected). In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
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