Who will visit Ukraine by December 31 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ursula von der Leyen | 34% | +199 | ▼ 2 |
| Mark Rutte | 44% | +130 | ▲ 9 |
| Emmanuel Macron | 5% | +1752 | — |
| Mark Carney | 8% | +1150 | — |
| António Guterres | 8% | +1150 | — |
| JD Vance | 5% | +2074 | — |
| Donald Trump | 3% | +3290 | — |
| Melania Trump | 10% | +900 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.