Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel Odds · HHS Secretary, Defense Secretary and FBI Director
Kalshi traders give Pete Hegseth a 71% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 71% | -245 | ▼ 3 |
| Kash Patel | 22% | +365 | ▲ 3 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 7% | +1329 | ▼ 6 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the individual holding the title of Secretary of Health and Human Services at the time of Issuance is the first within the HHS Secretary, the Secretary of Defense, and the FBI Director to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Pete Hegseth at 71%, about -245 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 20, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.