Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet Odds
Polymarket traders give Pete Hegseth a 28% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 28% | +264 | ▲ 8 |
| Marco Rubio | 16% | +545 | ▲ 11 |
| Howard Lutnick | 14% | +590 | ▼ 7 |
| Stephen Miller | 10% | +920 | — |
| Jamieson Greer | 10% | +936 | ▲ 6 |
| Linda McMahon | 10% | +953 | — |
| Lee Zeldin | 10% | +953 | ▲ 1 |
| Kelly Loeffler | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 5 |
| Brooke Rollins | 6% | +1718 | ▼ 1 |
| None before 2029 | 5% | +1900 | ▼ 2 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4% | +2147 | — |
| Scott Bessent | 4% | +2199 | — |
| Doug Collins | 4% | +2199 | ▲ 1 |
| Markwayne Mullin | 4% | +2199 | — |
| Doug Burgum | 4% | +2226 | — |
| Todd Blanche | 4% | +2281 | ▲ 4 |
| Russell T. Vought | 4% | +2310 | ▼ 4 |
| Jay Clayton | 4% | +2567 | ▼ 1 |
| Sean Duffy | 4% | +2757 | ▲ 2 |
| John Ratcliffe | 2% | +4662 | ▼ 1 |
| J.D. Vance | <1% | +15285 | — |
| Chris Wright | <1% | +15285 | — |
| Scott Turner | <1% | +16567 | — |
| Mike Waltz | <1% | +16567 | — |
| Keith Sonderling | <1% | +16567 | ▼ 3 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed assumes a listed Cabinet position, they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Pete Hegseth at 28%, about +264 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.