Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump's term Odds · By January 20, 2029
Kalshi traders give Ted Cruz a 7% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 7% | +1299 | ▲ 2 |
| Andrew Oldham | 5% | +1787 | — |
| Mike Lee | 3% | +2757 | ▲ 2 |
| Michael Park | 3% | +3179 | — |
| D. John Sauer | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Emil Bove | 2% | +4155 | — |
| James Ho | 2% | +5456 | ▼ 5 |
| Neomi Rao | 1% | +6797 | — |
| Amul Thapar | 1% | +7043 | — |
| Aileen Cannon | 1% | +7307 | ▼ 1 |
| Kathryn Mizelle | <1% | +12400 | — |
| Lawrence VanDyke | <1% | +16567 | — |
| Allison Jones Rushing | <1% | +16567 | — |
| Patrick Bumatay | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Tom Cotton | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Kenneth Lee | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Barbara Lagoa | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Ron DeSantis | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Yaakov Roth | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Anna St. John | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Steven Menashi | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Matthew Schwartz | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Eric Tung | <1% | +19900 | — |
| Kevin Newsom | <1% | +22122 | — |
| David Stras | <1% | +24900 | — |
| Gregory G. Katsas | <1% | +33233 | — |
| Matthew Kacsmaryk | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Stuart Kyle Duncan | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Trevor McFadden | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Clint Bolick | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Kevin Brobson | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Britt Grant | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Allison Eid | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Evan Young | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Joan Larsen | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Kate Comerford Todd | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Patrick Wyrick | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Kristen Waggoner | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Morse Tan | <1% | +99900 | — |
| Mark Martin | <1% | +99900 | — |
Showing the top 40 of 42 outcomes.
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
If Amul Thapar is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump's term?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Ted Cruz at 7%, about +1299 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 21, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will be the next Supreme Court justice in Trump's term?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.