Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet Odds
Polymarket traders give Pat McFadden a 16% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat McFadden | 16% | +527 | ▲ 9 |
| John Healey | 11% | +852 | — |
| Miatta Fahnbulleh | 10% | +890 | — |
| Yvette Cooper | 5% | +1941 | ▲ 1 |
| Alan Campbell | 5% | +1983 | — |
| Lucy Powell | 5% | +2051 | — |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 5% | +2051 | — |
| Alex Norris | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Angela Rayner | 4% | +2253 | — |
| Angela Smith | 4% | +2339 | — |
| Lisa Nandy | 4% | +2432 | — |
| Bridget Phillipson | 4% | +2432 | — |
| Angela Eagle | 4% | +2567 | ▼ 1 |
| Shabana Mahmood | 3% | +2885 | — |
| Stephen Kinnock | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Ed Miliband | 2% | +3982 | ▼ 1 |
| Louise Haigh | 2% | +4067 | ▼ 1 |
| Douglas Alexander | 2% | +5782 | ▼ 3 |
| Wes Streeting | 2% | +5961 | ▼ 2 |
| Chris Bryant | 2% | +5961 | ▼ 1 |
| Heidi Alexander | 1% | +7043 | ▼ 3 |
| Anneliese Midgley | 1% | +7592 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify. Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution. If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Pat McFadden at 16%, about +527 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.