Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run Odds · Before Nov 7, 2028
Kalshi traders give Pete Buttigieg a 30% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 30% | +233 | ▲ 5 |
| Andy Beshear | 22% | +365 | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11% | +785 | — |
| Gavin Newsom | 8% | +1199 | — |
| Josh Shapiro | 6% | +1624 | — |
| Jon Ossoff | 6% | +1624 | — |
| J.B. Pritzker | 5% | +1805 | — |
| Wes Moore | 5% | +1880 | — |
| Kamala Harris | 5% | +2122 | — |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | +8596 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Pete Buttigieg at 30%, about +233 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 7, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.