Who will be arrested before 2027 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | 8% | +1158 | — |
| Anthony Fauci | 3% | +3075 | — |
| John Brennan | 13% | +700 | ▲ 2 |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 8% | +1233 | — |
| James Clapper | 7% | +1329 | — |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 4% | +2432 | — |
| Adam Schiff | 2% | +4778 | — |
| Letitia James | 4% | +2678 | — |
| Hillary Clinton | 1% | +7900 | — |
| Bill Clinton | 1% | +7307 | — |
| Loretta Lynch | 2% | +6150 | — |
| Susan Rice | 6% | +1567 | — |
| Candace Owens | 6% | +1686 | ▼ 1 |
| Gavin Newsom | 1% | +6797 | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 3% | +3900 | — |
| John Kerry | 1% | +7900 | — |
| Barack Obama | 2% | +5456 | — |
| Pam Bondi | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Tom Homan | 4% | +2717 | — |
| Kash Patel | 3% | +3604 | — |
| Brandon Johnson | 4% | +2757 | — |
| Lisa Cook | 2% | +5456 | — |
| Lee Jun-seok | 4% | +2432 | — |
| Joe Biden | 1% | +7592 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will be arrested before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.