Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lee | 4% | +2603 | ▼ 1 |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 3% | +2930 | — |
| Mark Warner | 4% | +2369 | ▼ 1 |
| Jerry Moran | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 4% | +2400 | ▼ 0 |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Ruben Gallego | 2% | +5614 | ▼ 1 |
| Raphael Warnock | 4% | +2369 | — |
| Josh Hawley | 1% | +9424 | — |
| Andy Kim | 3% | +3409 | — |
| Rand Paul | 3% | +3822 | ▼ 1 |
| John Fetterman | 4% | +2717 | — |
| Thom Tillis | <1% | +11011 | — |
| Jacky Rosen | 4% | +2678 | — |
| Alex Padilla | 2% | +3982 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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