Which senators will back Schumer for Senate Democratic leader Odds · Before Jan 3, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Van Hollen | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Bernie Sanders | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Elissa Slotkin | 5% | +1900 | ▼ 1 |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 5% | +2122 | ▲ 2 |
| Scott Colom | 40% | +150 | ▼ 10 |
| Richard Blumenthal | 87% | -669 | ▲ 5 |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 94% | -1567 | ▼ 7 |
| Mark Kelly | 90% | -900 | ▲ 1 |
| Raphael Warnock | 64% | -178 | ▼ 2 |
| Ruben Gallego | 95% | -1900 | ▲ 4 |
| John Fetterman | 99% | -9900 | ▲ 6 |
| Mark Warner | 74% | -285 | ▲ 2 |
| Maggie Hassan | 76% | -308 | ▲ 1 |
| Martin Heinrich | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 60 |
| James Talarico | 40% | +150 | ▼ 52 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 11% | +809 | ▼ 17 |
| Cory Booker | 90% | -900 | ▲ 14 |
| Chris Murphy | 48% | +108 | ▼ 3 |
| Mary Peltola | 88% | -733 | ▲ 50 |
| Juliana Stratton | 65% | -186 | ▲ 62 |
| Jon Ossoff | 80% | -400 | ▲ 20 |
| Andy Kim | 62% | -163 | ▼ 2 |
| Patty Murray | 73% | -270 | ▲ 1 |
| Chris Coons | 65% | -186 | ▲ 1 |
| Ed Markey | 14% | +614 | — |
| Roy Cooper | 98% | -4900 | ▲ 22 |
| Josh Turek | 87% | -669 | ▲ 27 |
| Angela Alsobrooks | 87% | -669 | ▲ 9 |
| Peter Welch | 60% | -150 | ▲ 10 |
| Chris Pappas | 52% | -108 | ▼ 6 |
| Tim Kaine | 73% | -270 | ▲ 9 |
| Maria Cantwell | 64% | -178 | — |
| Tammy Duckworth | 91% | -1011 | ▲ 17 |
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Resolution rules
If Chris Van Hollen publicly backs Chuck Schumer for Senate Democratic leader when the caucus votes, or says by the end of the next day that they voted for him before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 10, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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