Where will Democrats win state legislative supermajorities in 2026 Odds · On Nov 3, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Senate | 0% | — | — |
| California Assembly | 98% | -4900 | — |
| Colorado Senate | 0% | — | — |
| Colorado House | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Connecticut Senate | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Connecticut House | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Delaware Senate | 97% | -3233 | — |
| Delaware House | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Hawaii Senate | 99% | -6567 | — |
| Illinois Senate | 99% | -6567 | ▲ 3 |
| Illinois House | 97% | -3233 | ▲ 1 |
| Maine Senate | 0% | — | — |
| Maryland Senate | 97% | -3233 | ▲ 3 |
| Nevada Senate | 0% | — | — |
| Nevada Assembly | 98% | -4900 | ▲ 1 |
| New Mexico House | 0% | — | — |
| New York Senate | 98% | -4900 | — |
| New York Assembly | 0% | — | — |
| Oregon Senate | 0% | — | — |
| Oregon House | 0% | — | — |
| Vermont Senate | 96% | -2400 | — |
| Vermont House | 96% | -2400 | — |
| Washington Senate | 0% | — | — |
| Washington House | 92% | -1150 | ▲ 63 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the number of California State Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 27 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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