Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026 Odds · in 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian aircraft | 11% | +839 | — |
| Critical minerals | 51% | -104 | — |
| Wind turbines | 8% | +1142 | — |
| Foreign-made films | 5% | +1962 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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