Which party will win the next UK general election Odds · In the next U.K. election
Kalshi traders give Labour party a 39% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour party | 39% | +160 | ▼ 3 |
| Reform party | 32% | +212 | ▼ 6 |
| Conservative party | 19% | +426 | — |
| Restore Britain party | 3% | +2799 | — |
| Green party | 2% | +4551 | — |
| Liberal Democratic party | <1% | +12400 | — |
| Your Party | <1% | +22122 | — |
| Bruv party | <1% | +49900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Your Party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which party will win the next UK general election?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Labour party at 39%, about +160 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Aug 31, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which party will win the next UK general election?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.