Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Party | 75% | -292 | ▼ 4 |
| Labour Party | 25% | +300 | ▲ 6 |
| Green Party | 16% | +525 | ▲ 1 |
| ACT New Zealand | 76% | -308 | ▲ 5 |
| New Zealand First Party | 72% | -251 | ▼ 1 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 16% | +545 | ▲ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 8, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
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