Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President Odds
Polymarket traders give J.D. Vance a 27% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 27% | +277 | — |
| Ron DeSantis | 25% | +300 | ▲ 3 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 23% | +329 | ▼ 3 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 21% | +387 | — |
| Ted Cruz | 19% | +426 | ▲ 1 |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | +1011 | ▲ 1 |
| Rand Paul | 8% | +1112 | — |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 4% | +2147 | — |
| Donald Trump | 4% | +2567 | — |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2% | +5028 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price J.D. Vance at 27%, about +277 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
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