Which leaders will leave office in 2026 Odds · Before Jan 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 47% | +115 | ▲ 8 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 4% | +2640 | ▼ 1 |
| Javier Milei | 4% | +2253 | — |
| Mark Carney | <1% | +10426 | ▼ 2 |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 3% | +3233 | ▼ 2 |
| Giorgia Meloni | 4% | +2497 | — |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | <1% | +11011 | — |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2% | +5782 | — |
| Xi Jinping | 2% | +5961 | — |
| Vladimir Putin | 2% | +4067 | ▼ 1 |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 6% | +1595 | ▲ 7 |
| Narendra Modi | 3% | +2977 | — |
| Emmanuel Macron | 2% | +4155 | — |
| Sanae Takaichi | 3% | +3290 | — |
| Kim Jong Un | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Ahmad al-Sharaa | 4% | +2226 | — |
| Daniel Noboa | 6% | +1718 | — |
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 2% | +5163 | — |
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira | 5% | +1880 | — |
| Nayib Bukele | 1% | +9424 | — |
| Lee Jae Myung | 3% | +3075 | — |
| Christopher Luxon | 7% | +1242 | ▼ 23 |
| Denis Sassou Nguesso | 5% | +2051 | — |
| Félix Tshisekedi | 5% | +1805 | — |
| Friedrich Merz | 3% | +3025 | ▼ 1 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 6% | +1702 | ▼ 6 |
| Pedro Sánchez | 25% | +308 | ▲ 10 |
| Irfaan Ali | 2% | +4155 | — |
| Frederik X | 1% | +8596 | — |
| Jens-Frederik Nielsen | 4% | +2369 | — |
| Mette Frederiksen | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 7% | +1349 | — |
| Ramzan Kadyrov | 3% | +3900 | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 17% | +506 | ▲ 4 |
| Edi Rama | 10% | +900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
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