Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | 7% | +1308 | ▲ 1 |
| India | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Canada | 8% | +1233 | — |
| Brazil | 8% | +1135 | ▲ 1 |
| Japan | 7% | +1289 | — |
| Indonesia | 8% | +1150 | ▼ 0 |
| Argentina | 6% | +1567 | ▲ 1 |
| Vietnam | 13% | +660 | ▲ 6 |
| Australia | 6% | +1567 | ▼ 1 |
| Mexico | 10% | +953 | — |
| South Korea | 5% | +1842 | — |
| Israel | 10% | +953 | ▼ 1 |
| Pakistan | 9% | +1076 | — |
| United Kingdom | 8% | +1150 | — |
| Russia | 9% | +1076 | — |
| South Africa | 9% | +1011 | ▲ 1 |
| Taiwan | 6% | +1567 | ▲ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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