Which companies will the US take a stake in Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 7% | +1329 | — |
| Unusual Machines | 16% | +525 | ▼ 2 |
| Anduril | 7% | +1329 | ▲ 2 |
| Boeing | 5% | +2122 | — |
| TSMC | 8% | +1150 | ▲ 1 |
| OpenAI | 9% | +1076 | ▼ 2 |
| Palantir | 7% | +1349 | — |
| Nvidia | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Lockheed Martin | 3% | +2930 | — |
| TikTok US / Bytedance | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Freeport-McMoRan | 4% | +2369 | — |
| IonQ | 6% | +1567 | — |
| Micron | 3% | +3290 | ▼ 2 |
| Anthropic | 5% | +1769 | ▲ 1 |
| Eli Lilly | 9% | +993 | — |
| Pfizer | 8% | +1207 | — |
| Samsung Electronics | 4% | +2253 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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