Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place... Odds
Polymarket traders give No Meeting by December 31 a 57% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Meeting by December 31 | 57% | -135 | ▲ 3 |
| Qatar | 16% | +508 | ▼ 2 |
| Switzerland | 5% | +2005 | — |
| Pakistan | 4% | +2310 | ▲ 1 |
| Turkey | 4% | +2603 | — |
| Austria | 3% | +3290 | — |
| Saudi Arabia | 3% | +3409 | — |
| Russia | 3% | +3900 | ▲ 1 |
| UAE | 2% | +4344 | — |
| Oman | 2% | +5028 | — |
| Other - Europe | 2% | +5028 | — |
| Iraq | 2% | +5456 | ▲ 1 |
| USA | 2% | +5782 | — |
| Italy | 2% | +6352 | — |
| Other | 2% | +6352 | — |
| Iran | 1% | +9424 | — |
| Egypt | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Kazakhstan | <1% | +12400 | — |
| Other - Middle East/North Africa | <1% | +16567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran begins by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. If a qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the lis
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No Meeting by December 31 at 57%, about -135 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.