Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place Odds
Polymarket traders give UAE a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 96% | -2640 | ▲ 1 |
| No Talks by December 31, 2027 | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Turkey | <1% | +15285 | — |
| Switzerland | <1% | +24900 | — |
| USA | <1% | +28471 | ▼ 1 |
| Hungary | <1% | +199900 | — |
| China | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Russia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Ukraine | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Germany | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Saudi Arabia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Qatar | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Vatican City | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Italy | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Austria | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Slovakia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Finland | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Belarus | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Kazakhstan | <1% | +199900 | — |
| India | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Poland | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Serbia | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Azerbaijan | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Egypt | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Brazil | <1% | +199900 | — |
| South Africa | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Other - Europe | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Other - Middle East/North Africa | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Other | <1% | +199900 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict begins by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first diplomatic session begins. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If no qualifying senior-level peace talks begin by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Talks by December 31, 2027.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price UAE at 96%, about -2640 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.