When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal Odds · Transit calls
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 3% | +3900 | ▲ 1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6% | +1475 | ▼ 2 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 11% | +809 | ▼ 1 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 16% | +525 | ▼ 4 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 19% | +441 | ▼ 6 |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 27% | +277 | ▼ 3 |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 34% | +199 | — |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 39% | +160 | ▲ 4 |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 41% | +147 | — |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 42% | +141 | ▲ 1 |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 46% | +120 | ▲ 1 |
| Before Nov 1, 2027 | 49% | +106 | ▲ 1 |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | 49% | +106 | ▼ 1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 54% | -115 | — |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 62% | -160 | ▼ 1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 70% | -228 | ▼ 1 |
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On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.