What will Trump say on November 4 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 79% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | +365 | ▼ 0 |
| No | 79% | -365 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "What will Trump say on November 4"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 79%, about -365 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 5, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will Trump say on November 4?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.