What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027 Odds · Jan 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% or above | 26% | +285 | — |
| 15% or above | 89% | -809 | ▲ 61 |
| 20% or above | 97% | -3233 | ▲ 87 |
| 30% or above | 78% | -355 | — |
| 50% or above | 66% | -194 | ▼ 1 |
| 100% or above | 6% | +1567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 8, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.