What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 4.25% a 76% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25% | 76% | -308 | ▲ 1 |
| 4.0% | 22% | +358 | ▼ 2 |
| ≥ 4.5% | 2% | +6567 | — |
| 3.75% | 1% | +7043 | — |
| 3.5% | <1% | +14186 | — |
| ≤1.0% | <1% | +22122 | — |
| 1.25 | <1% | +28471 | — |
| 2.25% | <1% | +39900 | — |
| 2.5% | <1% | +39900 | — |
| 1.75% | <1% | +39900 | — |
| 2.0% | <1% | +39900 | — |
| 3.25% | <1% | +49900 | — |
| 3.0% | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 2.75% | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 1.5% | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 4.25% at 76%, about -308 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.