What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term Odds · From 2025 to 2028
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2000 | 97% | -2757 | — |
| At least 2500 | 92% | -1150 | — |
| At least 3000 | 88% | -733 | — |
| At least 3500 | 83% | -471 | — |
| At least 4000 | 75% | -300 | — |
| At least 4500 | 67% | -203 | — |
| At least 5000 | 54% | -117 | ▼ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
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Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
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Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2029 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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